Tuesday, March 31, 2009
Monday, March 30, 2009
Friday, March 27, 2009
Thursday, March 26, 2009
Wednesday, March 25, 2009
Tuesday, March 24, 2009
Monday, March 23, 2009
Friday, March 20, 2009
Thursday, March 19, 2009
Wednesday, March 18, 2009
Tuesday, March 17, 2009
Monday, March 16, 2009
Friday, March 13, 2009
Thursday, March 12, 2009
Monday, March 9, 2009
Friday, March 6, 2009
Thursday, March 5, 2009
Wednesday, March 4, 2009
Tuesday, March 3, 2009
F&O Outlook: Nifty may slide down to 2,500
Futures & Options (F&O) traders have hinted that the market is in the bear grip. They built up of fresh short positions in the Nifty March futures and bought 2,500 and 2,600 put options heavily.
Key index heavyweights such as Reliance Industries (RIL), State Bank of India (SBI), ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, Reliance Infrastructure, DLF and NTPC also closed at the day’s low with each of the futures adding open interest (OI), indicating fresh short build-up.
The Nifty March futures added an open interest of 3.32 million shares during the intraday play and carried forward 1.50 million shares at the close of the day’s trade, indicating fresh short build-up and unwinding of long positions. The F&O traders added an OI of 1.18 million shares in 2,700 call options and unwound short positions at 2,700 put options, indicating that the Nifty has built up resistance at 2,700.
The 2,600 put options added an OI of 1.48 million shares and 2,500 put options added 1.83 million shares. These puts together account for 40 per cent of the total OI in put options, indicating that the F&O traders expect the Nifty to trade below 2,500 going forward.
The downtrend is likely to accelerate further and we may see the benchmark indices below the October 27 lows in the near future. The BSE Sensex may see 300 points correction from the current level of 8,600, while the Nifty could go down to 2,500 from today’s close of 2,675.
According to the technical analyst of Ambit Capital, an upside is expected at any point of time if the Nifty manages to close above 2,700.
Technical studies by JM Financials indicate that the worst of the bear market is yet to come. In the next few weeks, the market may see the benchmark indices not only testing the October 2008 lows, but also breaking them to fall further.
While the Sensex may touch a low of 7,000, the Nifty may hit 2,050, as per the JM Financials studies.
Key index heavyweights such as Reliance Industries (RIL), State Bank of India (SBI), ICICI Bank, Tata Steel, Reliance Infrastructure, DLF and NTPC also closed at the day’s low with each of the futures adding open interest (OI), indicating fresh short build-up.
The Nifty March futures added an open interest of 3.32 million shares during the intraday play and carried forward 1.50 million shares at the close of the day’s trade, indicating fresh short build-up and unwinding of long positions. The F&O traders added an OI of 1.18 million shares in 2,700 call options and unwound short positions at 2,700 put options, indicating that the Nifty has built up resistance at 2,700.
The 2,600 put options added an OI of 1.48 million shares and 2,500 put options added 1.83 million shares. These puts together account for 40 per cent of the total OI in put options, indicating that the F&O traders expect the Nifty to trade below 2,500 going forward.
The downtrend is likely to accelerate further and we may see the benchmark indices below the October 27 lows in the near future. The BSE Sensex may see 300 points correction from the current level of 8,600, while the Nifty could go down to 2,500 from today’s close of 2,675.
According to the technical analyst of Ambit Capital, an upside is expected at any point of time if the Nifty manages to close above 2,700.
Technical studies by JM Financials indicate that the worst of the bear market is yet to come. In the next few weeks, the market may see the benchmark indices not only testing the October 2008 lows, but also breaking them to fall further.
While the Sensex may touch a low of 7,000, the Nifty may hit 2,050, as per the JM Financials studies.
Sensex slips below Nov closing lows of 8451
Source : Moneycontrol.com
The benchmark indices are trading lower. Sensex below November closing lows of 8451. The market breadth is weak since morning due to downtrend in broader indices. Banking, capital goods, telecom, FMCG, technology and select power stocks, and ONGC and Reliance Industries are under pressure.
However, cement stocks and stocks like NTPC, Reliance Industries, SAIL, DLF and HCL Tech are witnessing buying interest.
The Sensex was trading at 8,444, down 162 points and the Nifty was at 2,631, down 43 points, at 3:02 hours IST. BSE Midcap and Small cap indices fell 1% each.
The F&O turnover stood at Rs 26,400 crore and Rs 34,000 crore in total. Nifty March futures was trading with 27 points discount and has added about 27 lakh shares in open interest, OI. On the options side, PCR was hovering around 1.41 level.
Technical Analyst Mitesh Thacker said unless the Nifty breaks 2,650 on a closing basis, it should remain in a range. “2,650 is a strong support. If that holds, we are in a range of 2,650–2,790. Otherwise, the market could see a retest of October lows,” Thacker said.
Market breadth is weak; about 1075 shares have advanced while 1785 shares declined. Nearly 187 shares are unchanged.
Among midcap stocks, Rolta slipped 16%. Kirloskar Oil, India Infoline, Hind Oil Exploration and Ipca Labs tanked 6-8%. However, Monnet Ispat, Asian Star, UTV Software, Redington and Aurobindo Pharma gained 5-10.5%.
In the small cap space, Prime Focus, Gayatri Project, Solar Explosive, HBL Power and IOL Chemicals fell 6-7.5%. However, Kalindee Rail, Hercules Hoists, Swaraj Mazda, Timken and Minda Ind jumped 10-13%.
The recently listed Edserv Softsystems locked at 20% lower circuit, after seeing 130% gain on Monday.
However, European markets have bounced back, after sharp cut seen on Monday. FTSE went up 33 points, to 3,659. CAC was down 26 points, to 2,607 and DAX fell 24 points, to 3,734.
The benchmark indices are trading lower. Sensex below November closing lows of 8451. The market breadth is weak since morning due to downtrend in broader indices. Banking, capital goods, telecom, FMCG, technology and select power stocks, and ONGC and Reliance Industries are under pressure.
However, cement stocks and stocks like NTPC, Reliance Industries, SAIL, DLF and HCL Tech are witnessing buying interest.
The Sensex was trading at 8,444, down 162 points and the Nifty was at 2,631, down 43 points, at 3:02 hours IST. BSE Midcap and Small cap indices fell 1% each.
The F&O turnover stood at Rs 26,400 crore and Rs 34,000 crore in total. Nifty March futures was trading with 27 points discount and has added about 27 lakh shares in open interest, OI. On the options side, PCR was hovering around 1.41 level.
Technical Analyst Mitesh Thacker said unless the Nifty breaks 2,650 on a closing basis, it should remain in a range. “2,650 is a strong support. If that holds, we are in a range of 2,650–2,790. Otherwise, the market could see a retest of October lows,” Thacker said.
Market breadth is weak; about 1075 shares have advanced while 1785 shares declined. Nearly 187 shares are unchanged.
Among midcap stocks, Rolta slipped 16%. Kirloskar Oil, India Infoline, Hind Oil Exploration and Ipca Labs tanked 6-8%. However, Monnet Ispat, Asian Star, UTV Software, Redington and Aurobindo Pharma gained 5-10.5%.
In the small cap space, Prime Focus, Gayatri Project, Solar Explosive, HBL Power and IOL Chemicals fell 6-7.5%. However, Kalindee Rail, Hercules Hoists, Swaraj Mazda, Timken and Minda Ind jumped 10-13%.
The recently listed Edserv Softsystems locked at 20% lower circuit, after seeing 130% gain on Monday.
However, European markets have bounced back, after sharp cut seen on Monday. FTSE went up 33 points, to 3,659. CAC was down 26 points, to 2,607 and DAX fell 24 points, to 3,734.
Sensex pares losses, banks recover
The key benchmark indices recovered in afternoon deals even as trading remained volatile. Banking stocks cut losses as bond prices rose.
Index heavyweight Reliance Industries was firm. Auto and cement stocks gained on decent- to-strong growth in sales/dispatches in the month just gone by. Realty stocks edged higher.
The market opened weak but soon jumped into the green before plunging into the red shortly tracking weak world markets. A strong rebound took place again in morning trade on higher US index futures. Sensex moved to green from red. It, however, soon slipped into the red shortly as heavy selling by foreign funds in the past few days weighed on the investor sentiment. The market cut losses again in early afternoon trade.
There has been heavy selling by foreign funds this year. FII outflow in February 2009 totaled Rs 2707 crore. FII outflow in calendar year 2009 totaled Rs 6940.90 crore (till 27 February 2009).
Expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) remain with the latest foreign trade data providing further proof that the Indian economy is slowing down. Exports fell 16% in January 2009, falling for the fourth month in a row, data released by the government during trading hours on Monday, 2 March 2009, showed.
Asian markets moved between positive and negative zone, cutting intraday losses as US index futures rose. Key benchmark indices in Japan, Singapore, China and Hong Kong were down by between 0.79% to 2.15%. Key benchmark indices in Taiwan and South Korea were up by between 0.21% to 0.66%.
Trading in US index futures showed the Dow could rise 62 points at the opening bell on Tuesday, 3 March 2009.
US markets ended at 12-year low on Monday, as another bailout of insurance giant AIG stirred fears about the stability of the financial system. It was the first time the Dow has closed below 7,000 since May 1997.
Closer home, the outcome of the forthcoming parliamentary elections will be a key drive of the domestic bourses going ahead. The market may recover if a coalition led either by Congress or BJP comes to power. But the recovery will be subject to BJP or Congress led coalition coming to power without a support from the Left front which is against key economic reforms. The market will then look for whether the new government which comes to power undertakes second generation reforms that could bring India back on a strong growth path witnessed in five years between 2003 and 2008.
It is highly unlikely that either Congress or BJP comes to power on its own i.e. without the support of other smaller/regional parties. The chief Election Commission on Monday announced a month long schedule of the parliamentary elections. The elections will he held between mid-April 2009 to mid-May 2009.
The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 20.71 points, or 0.25%, to 8,586.06.
The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market was weak on BSE with 880 shares advancing as compared with 1,266 that declined. A total of 91 shares remained unchanged.
From the 30 share Sensex pack, 17 stocks rose while rest fell.
India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 1.29% to Rs 1,241, off the day's low of Rs 1,211.35, on bargain hunting. The stock had lost 3% in the previous trading session after the company set the swap ratio for merger of Reliance Petroluem which was slightly in favour of Reliance Petroleum.
Reliance Industries said on Monday 2 February 2009 its board approved the absorption of its unit Reliance Petroleum (RPL) and set a share swap ratio giving it direct control of the world's largest refinery complex. Reliance Industries said it would issue one share for every 16 held in RPL, which runs a refinery. Reliance Petroleum rose 1.06%.
PSU OMCs rose on sharp fall in crude oil prices. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation rose by between 1.61% to 2.73%. The fall in crude oil prices will reduce the under-recoveries for the PSU OMCs on sale of fuel at controlled prices. PSU OMCs are currently making profit on sale of petrol and diesel. But they continue to make losses on the sale of kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas.
Capital goods stocks fell on worries a slowing economy will crimp orders. Crompton Greaves, Praj Industries, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Thermax fell by between 0.71% to 0.9%. But India's largest engineering and construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro bucked the trend, gaining 0.15%.
Some healthcare stocks edged higher on defensive buying. Ranbaxy Laboratories, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Cipla, Piramal HealthCare rose by between 0.01% to 0.78%.
Auto Stocks rose on improved sales in February 2009. India's largest motorcycle maker by sales Hero Honda Motors rose 1.56%. Hero Honda's sales rose 24% to 3,29,055 units in February 2009 over February 2008. But India's largest car maker by sales Maruti Suzuki India fell 0.38% to Rs 673 off the day's high of Rs 688.50. Maruti during trading hours on Monday reported 24.1% rise in sales to 79190 units in February 2009 over February 2008.
TVS Motor Company rose 5.54% after its two wheeler sales rose 13% to 1,07,301 units in February 2009 over February 2008.
India's largest tractor maker by sales Mahindra & Mahindra rose 0.69%. M&M recorded 10.8% growth in total volumes to 29,017 units in February 2009 over February 2008
India's largest commercial vehicle maker by sales Tata Motors rose 1% after the company reported improved sales. Tata Motors' total domestic sales for the month of February 2009 at 42,493 units, were the highest in the last 4 months. Domestic commercial vehicle sales at 23,454 units were the highest since September 2008 and domestic passenger vehicle sale at 19,039 units were was the highest since May 2008. The total domestic sales, however, declined 15% in February 2009 over February 2008.
Rate sensitive real estate shares rose on hopes lower rates will spur housing demand. DLF, Indiabulls Real Estate and Unitech rose by between 0.01% to 0.67%. Most of the realty deals including sale of commercial property and housing sales are driven by finance.
India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank rose 0.71% to Rs 307 off the day's low of Rs 294.50. Its American Depository Receipts (ADR) slipped 11.72% on Monday, 2 February 2009. Recently, Life Insurance Corporation of India hiked its stake in ICICI Bank by 2.04% to 9.38%. India's second largest private sector bank by operating income HDFC Bank fell 1.44% as its ADR fell 7.1% overnight.
India's largest bank in terms of assets and branch network State Bank of India rose 0.41% to Rs 1000 off the day's low of Rs 985 after the bank reduced deposit rates by 40 to 50 basis points across maturities. The new rates would be effective from 9 March 2009.
PSU bank stocks, Union Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Bank of India fell by between 0.07% to 1.57%.
Despite a steep cut in policy rates by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) since October 2008, there has not been a commensurate reduction in lending rates by banks as fears of rising bad loans have made them cautious in increasing advances/lending. One reason why banks have not fully passed on the central bank rate cuts to customers is because higher bond yields are pushing up their funding costs. Bond yields and bond prices are inversely related.
After a recent steep rise, the yields have started easing since late last week buoyed by hopes the central bank will purchase more bonds at the buyback auction. Recovery in bond prices could boost the valuations of banks' bond portfolio. The central bank is scheduled to buy back Rs 6000-crore of federal debt, with an option to buy an additional Rs 3000 crore on Thursday, 5 March 2009, ahead of a Rs 12000 crore government bond auction on Friday, 6 March 2009.
Index heavyweight Reliance Industries was firm. Auto and cement stocks gained on decent- to-strong growth in sales/dispatches in the month just gone by. Realty stocks edged higher.
The market opened weak but soon jumped into the green before plunging into the red shortly tracking weak world markets. A strong rebound took place again in morning trade on higher US index futures. Sensex moved to green from red. It, however, soon slipped into the red shortly as heavy selling by foreign funds in the past few days weighed on the investor sentiment. The market cut losses again in early afternoon trade.
There has been heavy selling by foreign funds this year. FII outflow in February 2009 totaled Rs 2707 crore. FII outflow in calendar year 2009 totaled Rs 6940.90 crore (till 27 February 2009).
Expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) remain with the latest foreign trade data providing further proof that the Indian economy is slowing down. Exports fell 16% in January 2009, falling for the fourth month in a row, data released by the government during trading hours on Monday, 2 March 2009, showed.
Asian markets moved between positive and negative zone, cutting intraday losses as US index futures rose. Key benchmark indices in Japan, Singapore, China and Hong Kong were down by between 0.79% to 2.15%. Key benchmark indices in Taiwan and South Korea were up by between 0.21% to 0.66%.
Trading in US index futures showed the Dow could rise 62 points at the opening bell on Tuesday, 3 March 2009.
US markets ended at 12-year low on Monday, as another bailout of insurance giant AIG stirred fears about the stability of the financial system. It was the first time the Dow has closed below 7,000 since May 1997.
Closer home, the outcome of the forthcoming parliamentary elections will be a key drive of the domestic bourses going ahead. The market may recover if a coalition led either by Congress or BJP comes to power. But the recovery will be subject to BJP or Congress led coalition coming to power without a support from the Left front which is against key economic reforms. The market will then look for whether the new government which comes to power undertakes second generation reforms that could bring India back on a strong growth path witnessed in five years between 2003 and 2008.
It is highly unlikely that either Congress or BJP comes to power on its own i.e. without the support of other smaller/regional parties. The chief Election Commission on Monday announced a month long schedule of the parliamentary elections. The elections will he held between mid-April 2009 to mid-May 2009.
The BSE 30-share Sensex was down 20.71 points, or 0.25%, to 8,586.06.
The market breadth, indicating the overall health of the market was weak on BSE with 880 shares advancing as compared with 1,266 that declined. A total of 91 shares remained unchanged.
From the 30 share Sensex pack, 17 stocks rose while rest fell.
India's largest private sector company by market capitalization and oil refiner Reliance Industries (RIL) rose 1.29% to Rs 1,241, off the day's low of Rs 1,211.35, on bargain hunting. The stock had lost 3% in the previous trading session after the company set the swap ratio for merger of Reliance Petroluem which was slightly in favour of Reliance Petroleum.
Reliance Industries said on Monday 2 February 2009 its board approved the absorption of its unit Reliance Petroleum (RPL) and set a share swap ratio giving it direct control of the world's largest refinery complex. Reliance Industries said it would issue one share for every 16 held in RPL, which runs a refinery. Reliance Petroleum rose 1.06%.
PSU OMCs rose on sharp fall in crude oil prices. Hindustan Petroleum Corporation, Indian Oil Corporation and Bharat Petroleum Corporation rose by between 1.61% to 2.73%. The fall in crude oil prices will reduce the under-recoveries for the PSU OMCs on sale of fuel at controlled prices. PSU OMCs are currently making profit on sale of petrol and diesel. But they continue to make losses on the sale of kerosene and liquefied petroleum gas.
Capital goods stocks fell on worries a slowing economy will crimp orders. Crompton Greaves, Praj Industries, Bharat Heavy Electricals, Thermax fell by between 0.71% to 0.9%. But India's largest engineering and construction firm by sales Larsen & Toubro bucked the trend, gaining 0.15%.
Some healthcare stocks edged higher on defensive buying. Ranbaxy Laboratories, Dr Reddy's Laboratories, Cipla, Piramal HealthCare rose by between 0.01% to 0.78%.
Auto Stocks rose on improved sales in February 2009. India's largest motorcycle maker by sales Hero Honda Motors rose 1.56%. Hero Honda's sales rose 24% to 3,29,055 units in February 2009 over February 2008. But India's largest car maker by sales Maruti Suzuki India fell 0.38% to Rs 673 off the day's high of Rs 688.50. Maruti during trading hours on Monday reported 24.1% rise in sales to 79190 units in February 2009 over February 2008.
TVS Motor Company rose 5.54% after its two wheeler sales rose 13% to 1,07,301 units in February 2009 over February 2008.
India's largest tractor maker by sales Mahindra & Mahindra rose 0.69%. M&M recorded 10.8% growth in total volumes to 29,017 units in February 2009 over February 2008
India's largest commercial vehicle maker by sales Tata Motors rose 1% after the company reported improved sales. Tata Motors' total domestic sales for the month of February 2009 at 42,493 units, were the highest in the last 4 months. Domestic commercial vehicle sales at 23,454 units were the highest since September 2008 and domestic passenger vehicle sale at 19,039 units were was the highest since May 2008. The total domestic sales, however, declined 15% in February 2009 over February 2008.
Rate sensitive real estate shares rose on hopes lower rates will spur housing demand. DLF, Indiabulls Real Estate and Unitech rose by between 0.01% to 0.67%. Most of the realty deals including sale of commercial property and housing sales are driven by finance.
India's largest private sector bank by net profit ICICI Bank rose 0.71% to Rs 307 off the day's low of Rs 294.50. Its American Depository Receipts (ADR) slipped 11.72% on Monday, 2 February 2009. Recently, Life Insurance Corporation of India hiked its stake in ICICI Bank by 2.04% to 9.38%. India's second largest private sector bank by operating income HDFC Bank fell 1.44% as its ADR fell 7.1% overnight.
India's largest bank in terms of assets and branch network State Bank of India rose 0.41% to Rs 1000 off the day's low of Rs 985 after the bank reduced deposit rates by 40 to 50 basis points across maturities. The new rates would be effective from 9 March 2009.
PSU bank stocks, Union Bank of India, Bank of Baroda, Bank of India fell by between 0.07% to 1.57%.
Despite a steep cut in policy rates by Reserve Bank of India (RBI) since October 2008, there has not been a commensurate reduction in lending rates by banks as fears of rising bad loans have made them cautious in increasing advances/lending. One reason why banks have not fully passed on the central bank rate cuts to customers is because higher bond yields are pushing up their funding costs. Bond yields and bond prices are inversely related.
After a recent steep rise, the yields have started easing since late last week buoyed by hopes the central bank will purchase more bonds at the buyback auction. Recovery in bond prices could boost the valuations of banks' bond portfolio. The central bank is scheduled to buy back Rs 6000-crore of federal debt, with an option to buy an additional Rs 3000 crore on Thursday, 5 March 2009, ahead of a Rs 12000 crore government bond auction on Friday, 6 March 2009.
Hold Tata Steel, target of Rs 143: Emkay Global
Source : moneycontrol.com
Emkay Global Financial Services has upgraded its rating on Tata Steel from reduce to hold with target price of Rs 143 in its March 3, 2009 research report.
"Tata Steel reported 3QFY09 cosolidated results, which were significantly ahead of our estimates. Net sales stood at Rs 331.9 billion (yoy up 4.1%, qoq down 4.9%) driven by better than expected average realization for Corus which stood at USD 1,250/t as against our estimates of USD 820/t. The higher realizations lead to better operating performance with EBITDA at Rs 28.6 billion (yoy down 27.5%, qoq down 65.4%) and adjusted PAT at Rs 9.5 billion (yoy down 26.3%, qoq down 81.2%). Tata Steel reported adjusted FDEPS of Rs 10.9. We are upgrading the stock from REDUCE to HOLD with target price of Rs 143 (0.5x FY10E book value)," says Emkay Global Financial Services' research report.
Emkay Global Financial Services has upgraded its rating on Tata Steel from reduce to hold with target price of Rs 143 in its March 3, 2009 research report.
"Tata Steel reported 3QFY09 cosolidated results, which were significantly ahead of our estimates. Net sales stood at Rs 331.9 billion (yoy up 4.1%, qoq down 4.9%) driven by better than expected average realization for Corus which stood at USD 1,250/t as against our estimates of USD 820/t. The higher realizations lead to better operating performance with EBITDA at Rs 28.6 billion (yoy down 27.5%, qoq down 65.4%) and adjusted PAT at Rs 9.5 billion (yoy down 26.3%, qoq down 81.2%). Tata Steel reported adjusted FDEPS of Rs 10.9. We are upgrading the stock from REDUCE to HOLD with target price of Rs 143 (0.5x FY10E book value)," says Emkay Global Financial Services' research report.
Monday, March 2, 2009
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